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Economy

Türkiye's central bank pins the rate at 37% — and leaves a warning for August

The policy rate was unchanged and the corridor held. But a note on tobacco taxation in the committee summary signals an upside surprise in August inflation. The Inflation Report lands tomorrow.

By Bahar Çelik·August 11, 2026 · Tuesday·4 MIN READ·3 DAYS AGO
Koyu bir masaya yayılmış Türk lirası banknotları ve yanında finans terminali ekranı

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye kept the policy rate — the one-week repo auction rate — unchanged at 37%. The overnight lending rate was held at 40% and the overnight borrowing rate at 35.5%.

The committee summary noted that the upward effect on inflation of cutting the ad valorem excise rate on tobacco products while raising the lump-sum duty may be observed in August.

On the global outlook, the committee expects the weak and fragile picture to persist. The global growth index weighted by the export shares of Türkiye's trading partners is forecast to rise 1.7% in 2026. Inflation Report 2026-III will be published on 13 August.

MHA Analysis

The committee's line on tobacco taxation is the most overlooked and most informative sentence in the statement. The central bank is already pricing an upside deviation in August inflation and, by flagging it in advance, is managing expectations rather than defending a number after the fact. In tomorrow's Inflation Report the section to read is not the headline forecast but how far administered-price effects are separated out from the underlying path.

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