Oil hits $80: who pays the bill while Hormuz stays shut?
US crude reached $80 a barrel, Treasury yields climbed and equities opened lower. A blockage in one strait is rewriting the inflation path directly.
Oil prices advanced on the first trading day of the week, with US crude futures reaching $80 a barrel. The move was driven by growing concern that no agreement will be reached on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The climb in energy prices fed through to the bond market. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose at the start of the week as investors looked ahead to a heavy data calendar, with particular focus on a key inflation reading.
Equity markets opened weaker after a weekend that produced no progress on the Iran file. Every leg higher in oil directly affects assumptions about the path of inflation.
MHA Analysis
This move in crude comes from the expectation of a delayed deal, not from a supply cut — the price is being set by the calendar, not by barrels. For an energy-importing economy that distinction matters: even with no physical shortage, the risk premium feeds straight into the current account and into inflation. Every week Hormuz stays shut raises Türkiye's energy bill directly and its August inflation path indirectly.
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